First, the real estate bust. Speculation helped fuel the boom — and now it’s payback time. In the past year, housing starts have dropped 27 percent and sales of new homes 25 percent. With buyers waiting to see how low prices go, inventories of unsold new homes have risen 14 percent. Some economists see recession. Falling home prices could weaken consumer confidence and spending. By year-end 2007, unemployment will hit 6.3 percent, predicts Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research